Going your own path is often not supported by your family and friends, they want you to live the life they have. Many children are neglected and not really loved, and as a parent do the same to their children. This causes a low self esteem, that will impact the rest of your life. Break the cycle of abuse/neglect. Family is not sacred. Insist on surrounding yourself with people that don't put you down, or neglect you, but that build you up and support you. Check out Louis Thomas his video: "Everyone Thinks I'm a Loser": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZYSP8NOZ9AE
Views: 3252 Marc De Mesel
Only investing in Bitcoin Cash during this Bear, but u can apply my buy-in strategy to any other crypto u prefer. Plan to diversify BCH into smaller coins once ATH of BCH @ $4k is breached (= $20k for BTC). Now have: -40% exposure, with BCH @ $300 (BTC @ $5000), Plan to raise to: -60% exposure if BCH hits $200 (BTC @ $4000), -80% if BCH reaches $100 (BTC @ $3300), -100%, fully invested, if BCH reaches $50 (BTC @ $2500) Whatever fiat that is not filled will be used to buy smaller coins once ATH's are breached. Links: Great technical analyst: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCnwxzpFzZNtLH8NgTeAROFA
Views: 2309 Marc De Mesel
In my video "Serious Undervaluation Is Here" I recommended to go to big, but still minority exposure as I thought, and still think, bottom was not in. However, you don't want to wait until u estimate bottom is in before you invest the majority of your allocated funds into crypto. You need to build in a margin of safety as you never know for sure where bottom or top will be. Cutting 50% from previous peak in over and undervaluation is a decent margin of safety, where you can already reduce or increase to a minority or majority exposure. Since previous bear went to -70% undervaluation, going already to majority exposure at -35% undervaluation is the safe thing to do, this was hit already at $4000 BTC/ $200 BCH, and since you should never sell the coins u bought, one should today at $5500 BTC / $300 BH still be at majority exposure. Time to correct this mistake is not now after pump, but if we get a serious correction back to these valuation,s which is likely to happen sooner or later, even if the bull has started, I would recommend to do so with say 60 or 70% of your planned total allocation. I would still leave enough to scale in more and more until we reach estimated bottom of -85% undervaluation, after which I would recommend to be fully invested.
Views: 2989 Marc De Mesel
Odds are high altcoins will start to go up a lot more than Bitcoin once bitcoin starts to go over it's ATH of $1200 into a clear new bubble. Are you well positioned for this? Odds are high because this also happened in past bitcoin bubbles, but also because bitcoin fundamentals have weakened a lot compared to altcoins. In that regard check out what to expect from Bitcoin going forward: "Why Bitcoin Will Get Scaling Without Segwit or Large Blocks": https://medium.com/@jimmysong/why-bitcoin-will-get-scaling-without-segwit-or-large-blocks-772799fab021
Views: 8760 Marc De Mesel
Now that BTC broke $5k and BCH $250, many think we might have seen the bottom in Dec 2018 at $3200 and $80 for BCH and ETH. However, nothing changed, volumes were extremely low then for a bottom to be in, timing was off, usually bears take half the time of a bull, which means 1.5y bear more likely instead of only 1 year. If you don't have a decent minority exposure to crypto yet, sure build it but wait at least couple of weeks for market to cool off. Today is a time to sell, not buy in my opinion, so if you overinvested before, now is good time to scale back. Link to twitter poll: https://twitter.com/marcdemesel/status/1113419380908601346
Views: 1712 Marc De Mesel
After the first bubble in 2013 I lost 80% of my gains in the crash thereafter, same happened in second bubble of 2013. Main reason is that I started with too little exposure, in both bubbles I started with only 10% and 20% crypto. But another mistake was that I was too heavily exposed at the top, I had a majority in crypto and could have sold a lot more. I also started buying back too soon during the bear market. My twitter: https://twitter.com/marcdemesel
Views: 5496 Marc De Mesel
Due to this massive parabolic run to $8k / $230B, odds for serious correction have become very high but sadly, odds we saw bottom half year back have increased also a lot. Raised my buy orders, and plan to go back to majority exposure of 60%, no longer at -50% but at -35% undervaluation compared to trendline. Trendline currently stands at $262B, so correction to $180B, $5900 BTC, will do the trick, and is still likely to be hit. However have accepted that I will likely be unable to invest a big piece of my portfolio sitting in cash, and that I had reserved to invest in crypto, as my undervaluation target of -80% below trendline, even -50%, seems more and more unlikely to be hit (again) during this bear market, before we go into a new bubble, and will have to start looking for other investment opportunities. Links: Big majority people think we go higher, even among my followers: https://twitter.com/marcdemesel/status/1127839849740947456 Calculate trendline in real time: https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=10%5E(3.03529++*+ln((number+of+weeks+since+2009+Jan+09)%2Fweeks)+-+7.67399
Views: 2025 Marc De Mesel
Current fair historical valuation of all cryptos according to Trololo chart is $180 billion so current $260 billion is still 44% overvalued (not 70% as mentioned in video). If it is trending upwards you can still make a good buck buying overvaluation but trend is now clearly downwards for half a year. Considering past bull market (2015-2017) lasted 50% longer than previous bull market (2012-2013) (3 years instead of 2), this bear market will likely also last 50% longer than last bear market of 2014-2015 so this time 1.5 year instead of 1, for the biggest coins, 3 years instead of 2 years for smallest, which is still a very long time from here, until end 2020! Also a word on real world adoption of Byteball and Bitcoin Cash. Recently very active on Instagram, pics and vids of my dating life ;) Check it out: https://www.instagram.com/marcdemesel/ Please share with your friends on your fb or snapchat, or retweet: https://twitter.com/marcdemesel/status/1010160840518066176
Views: 2656 Marc De Mesel
As you can see on Trololo chart, period of undervaluation just started, and will likely take a lot longer and go a lot deeper. This would not happen if we have started bull market with recent pump, as we would quickly go into overvaluation again. Always possible as also happened middle 2013 when another bubble started already half a year after previous one, and since potential reward in crypto is so high always recommended to have a minority exposure, but to go to a majority exposure, you want to see many boxes tick off before taking on such big risk, which today is lacking. Check also other indicators still pointing bearish, presented very well in this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eoAiDEXPV1g Other links: https://twitter.com/throwaway82738/status/1114362917187547137 https://twitter.com/marcdemesel/status/1114145360086171648 https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCnwxzpFzZNtLH8NgTeAROFA
Views: 2651 Marc De Mesel
With Fear & Greed Index at ATH of 69 my impression that market is very bullish is confirmed. This typically means reversal is near and correction likely, as bulls and bears seem to all agree on these days, 'to test/confirm the bottom'. Do plan to go back to majority exposure of 70% at $4200 BTC / $180 BCH, just in case bull started, but think odds are still high we will continue to drop from there and find a new low in the next few months of around $2700 BTC, $60 ETH but only double bottom for $BCH around $75. If we do not find new low by September I'll have to admit I was wrong, change strategy and likely will have to buy in at considerably higher prices. Links: Fear & Greed Index: https://alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/ Updated Trololo Chart: https://twitter.com/Awe_andWonder/status/1124400533845024768 My Allocation Targets: https://twitter.com/marcdemesel/status/1125590929484677121
Views: 2395 Marc De Mesel
Summary: Now that we reached serious undervaluation of -50%, odds for seeing the bottom here are up a lot as this was exactly where bottom was found in previous bear markets of 2011 and 2014 ... Still good odds fiat bottom will be later and deeper this time, say 60/40, so a minority but decent position in crypto is already rational & justified. Please consider Awe & Wonder for donation, even small better than none: BTC: 18kRpopwRyKboTtbyQKFJ8WLU7yXc8hNsj BCH: qp207lf4v4vw7asyr66075urukeye34axch54648c9 Links https://twitter.com/Awe_andWonder https://twitter.com/gravitywave2 https://twitter.com/gravitywave2/status/1057925542727553024 Calculate today's trendline marketcap: https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=10%5E(3.23720++*+ln((number+of+weeks+since+2009+Jan+09)%2Fweeks)+-+8.81809) Updated the chart (7 FEB 2019): https://twitter.com/marcdemesel/status/1093427601006313472
Views: 4875 Marc De Mesel
Due to HODL strategy, widespread bullishness, or simply expecting higher prices many, me included, failed to sell to minority share around top. Due to FODL panic, widespread bearishness or just expecting lower prices may cause many, me as well, fail to go to majority exposure around bottom. Therefore I must respect the Kelly criterion that says you should increase your bet size if risk/reward improves (when prices go down), and reduce bet size when risk/reward declines (when prices go up). Ofcourse you need to ride it too, so you only start selling when you reached serious overvaluation on Trololo chart and only start buying when you reached serious undervaluation. But you should start strong and go to minority or majority immediately as you never know how high or low it will go, you may well have reached the top/bottom already the moment u reach serious over or undervaluation. But if not, you continue to scale down, or scale up as higher or lower prices are reached. That is a winning strategy. Links: Checking track records: https://twitter.com/marcdemesel/status/1118073037264494592 Trololo Chart: https://twitter.com/marcdemesel/status/1114145360086171648
Views: 1797 Marc De Mesel
Roger Ver has learned me how to make a cryptocurrency a succes. It is not by approaching it as an investor but as an entrepreneur. Not balancing in and out based on price/value but buying strong, holding through tick and thin and spending it when it has gone up in value. Also a word about the negativity and bullying I see in certain communities and ofcourse my portfolio positions and allocation moves.
Views: 2210 Marc De Mesel
Now that we see a first strong rebound since over half a year, people are wondering whether we saw the bottom. Especially Bitcoin Cash shot back up spectacularly more than doubling again in one day. Still I think odds are in favor of a lower low by middle 2019 due to typical duration cycle of bear market being half the duration of bull cycle, a lack of volume 2 days back when bottom was reached, a majority already thinking it will continue to go down (70%), but not a massive majority yet (90%), which is typical at end of bear cycle, all convince me odds are still for a deeper bottom. Will not be trading any of the BCH I bought at $250 but lower my bids for remaining fiat from $50 to around $25 because we already reached $75 and BCH has shown great weakness, as well as this: https://twitter.com/marcdemesel/status/1075667055918100480
Views: 2880 Marc De Mesel
Was wrong in previous video in that I do not think we have hit historically high undervaluation today that justifies a majority position (See chart: https://twitter.com/Awe_andWonder/status/1093756318425468928). But I do think one has to be prepared for that event to happen anytime over next half year when Bitcoin breaks $3200 and likely bottoms at $2500, worst case $1900. Recommended 40% crypto exposure, and still do today, but go to majority of at least 60% up to 100% if you are comfortable with such risk level. Buy & Hold forever or HODL is nonsensical when market extremes occur. If you have good tools you can read whether we reach serious over or undervaluation and are wise to act upon that. Also a word on babies sucking titties. Other Great Chart: https://twitter.com/gravitywave2/status/1108968866950967301
Views: 3109 Marc De Mesel
1. Go All In During This Bear 2. Stay All In The Whole Way Up 3. Add Leverage When ATH Is Broken 4. Spend Crypto On Goods & Services 5. Focus On Only a Few Crypto's 6. Help Them Become a Success & Make More Coins Doing So 7. Brake Rule 2 When You Became Filthy Rich 8. Take Holiday During Next Bear and Make Babies
Views: 3978 Marc De Mesel
Talking about my Crypto Portfolio, Iran Stocks and Angel Investing. Angel.co allows you to invest in startups following other reputable angel investors their lead. This way you can diversify over many projects and hit that 1000 bagger that you really need to make up for all the losses you will surely have. Only problem, you need a million plus to get access.
Views: 2062 Marc De Mesel
Many people have a scarce resource mindset, believing natural resources, space or blockchain transactions are limited and we must make them expensive. Politicians often find great support promoting this false belief to justify more taxes for a certain group but businessman will find little support when raising their prices as if there is no competition. During the dotcom bubble, the leaders and cashcows of 1995 Netscape, Yahoo and AOL had totally lost the market to underdogs like Google and Amazon, after the bubble collapsed. The same setup I see in cryptoland. Current leaders are failing to capture the expanding market. It is the job of the devs to build and scale a cryptocurrency so that valuable features of no counterparty risk and fast confirmations are preserved, new smart features are build on top, and this all while fees go down over time instead of up. Sold my ZENcash and most of my Monero. Continuing to scale out of crypto as prices get out of touch with real adoption. Check out The Ultimate Resource 2, by Julian Simon or the amazing interview with him: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uLQoa_FA_zo
Views: 2998 Marc De Mesel
Respecting the Kelly Criterion does imply that you should never go all-in and never all-out, as even when risk/reward is extremely favorable, and chances for it to happen very high, there is still a low chance the investment might fail, and u might not get the chance to get out, losing it all. Same on the way up, crypto can due to a black swan event go up a lot more than expected and your fiat may at the same time lose all it's value quickly in for example a hyperinflation scenario, hence going all out, is not wise either. Respecting these rules the Kelly Criterion lays out, increase exposure as it goes down, reduce exposure as it goes up, but never go full retard, I believe will set me free of "what if" worries, not sell when goes up, not buy when goes down, and increase my investment returns. In the live chat I also answer questions why I believe in Bitcoin Cash vs Bitcoin BTC untill a troll army ends the show. Enjoy! :) Link great bearish case: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCi6ccY1zwc7uTfOylwsKpQg
Views: 1757 Marc De Mesel
I created this video with the YouTube Video Editor (http://www.youtube.com/editor)
Views: 14240 Marc De Mesel
Because it's the best way to achieve great wealth for myself and the world. Leaving the old system completely for the new simplifies my life a lot and allows me to focus on crypto fully while becoming much richer in the process compared to hedging myself partly. Staying in touch with the reality of my investments, whether they are truly being adopted, and possibly switching between projects, is the way I keep me and my family secure.
Views: 4031 Marc De Mesel
Showing that volume was low at bottom of $3150, cycles take longer over time, and growth is going down over time while undervaluation up over time, means it is not very but still likely we see a new bottom of $2800, possibly $1800 over the next few months. However, will raise my exposure from current 45% to majority of 70% at $4500 BTC/$200 BCH that I think is still very likely to hit, even if bull has started, as this breakout to $8000 is very likely to fail looking at the relatively low volume, means very likely we will retest the bottom at 30% higher or so. Will raise exposure to 80% if we reach $3000 BTC/$100 BCH that I think is not very likely, but still likely, and to 90% exposure if we would reach $2000 BTC/$50 BCH, which would be a new considerably deeper bottom, not likely but certainly possible, and for which you need to prepare today if you don't want to chicken out if it would happen.
Views: 4289 Marc De Mesel
Now that government agents likely again stole assets in crypto industry, this time from Tether $USDT company, solvency uncertainty is rising, and investors want to get out pumping BTC price on those exchanges relying on it. This scenario is very similar to Mtgox uncertainty early 2014 when it's assets were also stolen and uncertainty was rising, pumping BTC price on that leading exchange as people wanted to get out by buying Bitcoin as they could not withdraw fiat anymore. However after couple of months Mtgox finally shut down, many people losing their fiat and crypto, after which we went down big forming the bottom of 2014 Bear only months after this event. With today BTC at $5630 on Bitfinex, we have 6% higher price on USDT Exchange than on USD Exchange (eg $5315 on Bitstamp & Coinbase), likely because people wanting to get out of USDT. It could go up to 20% like Mtgox at the time when suddenly all trading is seized and assets frozen. Make sure to get out USDT exchanges before then so that you have fiat to buy the bottom that will likely occur during panic times around middle 2019, when many things come together (mtgox finally returning part of btc/bch to old investors sitting on major profits still, slow summer, timing typically bear duration after top of half time bull market 3y/2 = 1.5y).
Views: 2270 Marc De Mesel
Some caveats to my first part so u don't blame it on me when u lose your stash of blacks 😎 Part 1: https://youtu.be/oGxOQAS54vk
Views: 517 Marc De Mesel
Now that crypto market cap has dropped to $190 Billion and reached the trendline of Trololo that currently stands at $200 billion (not $180B as mentioned in video), we can say crypto is fairly valued. Some coins dropped a lot like Byteball ($50, -95%), but Bitcoin still at $6k (-70%). Target for this bear however is -90% undervaluation to trendline in about 1 year as you can see in my last Trololo video (link below). In meantime trendline will likely go up to $400 billion, so $100 billion as final low seems likely, cutting bitcoin again in half and most other coins in 3 or 4 from here. But since this is not that much lower and another year to go, a strong rebound is certainly possible before the real bear starts. Going below 5k could start the real bear leading to the final low of $3k but be careful for possible strong rebound first to say $12k. Growth rates users in Crypto: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=caYy8pafFeY&t=923s Great crypto bear channel iTradeCrypto from Kevin Svenson: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCVTbGN6Hzi4sSAz1bKHiDiQ https://twitter.com/KevinSvenson_ My last Trololo video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MvQzjyhtjRg&t Troiolo trendline calculator: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2000218.msg30510563#msg30510563 Compare amount of transactions on Bitcoin vs ETH, BCH, XMR,and many more: https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/transactions-btc-eth-bch-xmr.html#log My awesome daily tweets: https://twitter.com/marcdemesel My lovely girls and lambo: https://www.instagram.com/marcdemesel/
Views: 3334 Marc De Mesel
Ordered a new engine from Lamborghini after the previous one blew up. Payed €40'000 total, new engine, new clutch and 21% Sales Tax included. He drives great again! :) Hope I can do 125'000 km with it (80k miles) instead of the previous one that blew up already at 75'000 km (45k miles): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q2EaoMwPpqE
Views: 24754 Marc De Mesel
( To see part 2: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uAFzKm6f_Ik ) Why I think redesigning the Permanent Portfolio into 20% stocks, 20% bonds, 20% gold, 20% cash and 20% bitcoins makes sense. 1. Explaining that Bitcoin is very volatile and will make the Permanent Portfolio much more volatile too. This is a disadvantage I am willing to accept. 2. Debunking counterargument that Bitcoin can go to zero, in contrast to the other assets. This is not true. Bitcoin cannot go to zero, though it can lose 99% of it's value, just like the other assets. 3. Why implementing bitcoin should be at the expense of all other assets, not just gold. 4. Arguments of esthetics, beauty and simplicity in favor of a 20% allocation to bitcoin, just like the others. 5. Why the permanent portfolio will become irrelevant if bitcoin succeeds in becoming a mainstream currency. 6. The Permanent Portfolio was initially designed to not just be a protector of capital but also be a grower of capital. However after deducting true inflation and costs the Permanent Portfolio is barely growing your purchasing power. Adding bitcoin to it can change that.
Views: 704 Marc De Mesel
Buying my dream house or investing in land in developing countries can be profitable investments that I have been researching. Thanks to low mortage rates at home or investing in fast growing economy where land prices are likely to go up, you can get returns between 6% and 12%. Still it requires time and some expertise to do it well. Think I will just invest in precious metals portfolio that is also great hedge against crypto failing and can achieve 15% per year on top if I follow experts in the field like portfolio of analyse.be that has 20% per year since 1999. For now I think I'll continue to rent my home, maybe just upscale a little ;)
Views: 2144 Marc De Mesel
Most of my viewers are already invested for more than 50% of their portfolio in crypto today, and most of that in Bitcoin BTC. This people is not what I recommend. I have a minority exposure of 40% in crypto, of which nothing in BTC, but almost everything in BCH. Here's why. Links: Last Trololo Chart: https://www.instagram.com/p/Bv3ejkfnZwW/ Great Bear Case: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LDi7n5a24Ho&t
Views: 1742 Marc De Mesel
Going full retard and investing everything in crypto, let alone one coin is perceived as very risky. But it does come with some great advantages. Just like going all in on your startup, going all in on your coin allows you to fully focus on it, have zero distractions of other investments, able to start promoting and building the coin, and thereby increasing it's chance to become a success. But how do you deal with all the insecurities? What do you do when you lose it all? Are you able to hedge yourself in other ways?
Views: 2429 Marc De Mesel
Now comparing Amount Of Transactions vs their peak during bubble, for BTC, BCH, Dash & Monero, left out Litecoin*. Discovered Amount Of Transactions for Dash was seriously overstated due to mixing. Starting to doubt BTC transactions are for real too. Very strange they have been going up so well past half year from bottom of 170k to 270k per day, eventhough other metrics, USD Sent & Median Transaction Value, have collapsed as much as BCH. Same for Dash that collapsed equally little in amount of transactions compared to peak bull market (-25%), but all other metrics collapsed as much as BCH. Do BTC and Dash have popular apps running on it that might explain it? If yes, who has data? *Left out LTC as I don't believe in it long term due to too much of a copycat of BTC. Links: Sheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vSL6nK3t1QYmF2wFN19pCn2jxVfug7FNdIoPPzqT1rF6_A2Ok5amXGoS7djm65To1nTVFCRrG2K3JyQ/pubhtml Data source: https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/marketcap-mediantransactionvalue-btc.html#log
Views: 956 Marc De Mesel
Was wrong thinking bottom was in at $75 for BCH, think odds are still in favor of lower low. Eventhou Dobe4ever was correct there was indeed massive volume for $BCH on the breakout from $75 to $220, but as Keven Svenson points out as well, like BTC there was no volume when bottom was made for BCH. Checked BTC bottom of Jan 2015 and indeed there was massive volume when bottom of $160 was hit and it also shot up immediately within hours to $220 unlike BCH that was bottoming for 3 days around $80, much longer. Considering all these factors, lack of volume, duration of bottom and taking into account the massive capitulation still to come for overall market, aiming back for bottom of $40 for #BitcoinCash, likely to happen together with BTC bottom somewhere middle 2019. Volume BTC Bottom 2015: https://twitter.com/marcdemesel/status/1081755424347557889
Views: 1646 Marc De Mesel
Undercover footage of presentation I did about Byteball yesterday on P2P Meetup in Ghent, Belgium. See bottom for to Byteball. Also check out recent INTERVIEW I did with Yes4Motivation: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=skheuBeU7FU 😍 👌 Byteball links: Website: https://byteball.org/ Bitcointalk thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1608859.15080 Buy Blackbytes via freebe chatbot in wallet: http://freebe.byte-ball.com/ Check out Byteball Cashback program: https://medium.com/byteball/byteball-cashback-program-9c717b8d3173 As well as Grants program if you want to help Byteball succeed: https://medium.com/byteball/byteball-grants-program-906a71b93d3c A mistake I made in the presentation: DAG also keeps full history of transactions, so like a blockchain it also grows rapidly in size. The advantage of DAG is speed and cost. Transactions no longer need to go into a block and are directly seen and accepted by the peer that builds on top of it when he sends also a transaction, creating a chain of transactions. The transaction is validated by a witness that will judge in case of double spend which transaction was first 'witnessed' by him, and decide which transaction is valid. The witness does charge/earn a small fee, but this fee is predictable (1 byte per bytesize of transaction) and can be guarantee to stay low as there are no artificial bottlenecks created by wanting all transactions included in a block.
Views: 3371 Marc De Mesel
Show starts at 6:36 - Sideways movement, after bottom was found, in past cycles typically takes as long as the bull market before. Bull market took 3 years, and so after the bottom is found, it will take most likely 3 years again of sideways movement, moving parallel to the red trendline, and staying undervalued historically high. During this period, most likely towards the end, we will see peak undervaluation of most likely around -80%, trendline being around $1T by 2022, means market cap will then still bottom at $150B, same value as today ...
Views: 2866 Marc De Mesel
2014 was a terrible year for Bitcoin and NXT price wise, but a great year to load the boat. I'm ready for take off! :)
Views: 1564 Marc De Mesel
Links: Calling out Richard Heart: https://twitter.com/marcdemesel/status/1079673275905654784 Calling out Tone Vays: https://twitter.com/marcdemesel/status/1077900685876826112 Calling out Trace Mayer: https://twitter.com/marcdemesel/status/1077892474641829888 Great video why we are in long term bull market for stocks: https://twitter.com/marcdemesel/status/1077102482579439616 How to backup bytes & blackbytes (Byteball Tips & Tricks): Part 1: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oGxOQAS54vk&t=55s Part 2: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OUzIfBhRDnA Founder Bismuth: https://twitter.com/tezosevangelist
Views: 1120 Marc De Mesel
The Kelly Criterion is a scientific proven method to maximize your returns. It simply states one should invest most on the best risk/reward ratio investment. There is even a mathematical function for it that says exactly how much you should bet. If done disciplined, thou shall prosper. Edward Thorp was first to apply it with poker in casino' s, beating the house, and later applied it to money management with his hedge fund, beating the market with 10 year long astronomical returns. The book 'Beat The Market' by Edward Thorp is too focused on 1970 stock market instruments, but his first book 'Beat The Dealer' I enjoyed very much. Make sure to read up on the Kelly Criterion, for example this great article: http://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/04/091504.asp?lgl=rira-baseline-vertical
Views: 2934 Marc De Mesel
Doing final comparison on transaction numbers and have to admit BTC and Dash are doing much better than BCH. But BCH doing not exceptionally bad, ZEC for example saw similar collapse in amount of transactions. Comparing USD Sent, BCH does the best but like amount of transactions, too easily manipulated. Comparing Median Transaction Value BCH performs average, not as bad as BTC but not as good as ZEC. Overall statistics on BCH are not exceptionally bad but still average so the question to invest becomes whether to follow your head, heart or gut? I think your gut is in the end the most important as it takes into account the unconscious stuff you can't articulate. Looking back on important decisions made in past, when gut is ignored usually very costly ... My gut says BCH will become big success and during this bear is rare second chance to get into bitcoin while it is again very controversial, many enemies and nay sayers, therefore very cheap prices, and will indeed conquer the world, although it will take again many years. If we see another steep drop to hopefully the bottom of this bear, plan to invest my last fiat into BCH as well. Links: https://www.coinfairvalue.com/ "Why Hitler Lost the War: German Strategic Mistakes in WWII" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5agLW7fTzBc Sheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vSL6nK3t1QYmF2wFN19pCn2jxVfug7FNdIoPPzqT1rF6_A2Ok5amXGoS7djm65To1nTVFCRrG2K3JyQ/pubhtml Data source: https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/marketcap-mediantransactionvalue-btc.html#log
Views: 1410 Marc De Mesel
Raised my bids for BCH as it looks more and more I missed the bottom, see Dobe4Ever: https://youtu.be/G5XMzd5QMzk?t=89 Better to realize early and not aim for lower low that is unlikely to happen, but instead aim for double bottom that still has good chance to happen when BTC bottoms somewhere middle 2019. I start to like leverage in crypto, as offered by kraken for example, very much, but since it is very high risk since crypto is so volatile, and very expensive (40% per year interest rate!), might use only when odds for crypto to start go up strong, are very much in your favor, ie: at end of sideways movement when fiat prices are already considerably higher than bottom, but Trololo undervaluation is still reaching new all time highs and most long term technical indicators are turning bullish, likely somewhere early 2021.
Views: 2156 Marc De Mesel